BREAKING NEWS: Nigeria’s ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget slammed by a sharp drop in crude oil to just $66/barrel — a 12% plunge below benchmark — throwing fiscal projections into disarray, exposing gaping output shortfalls, escalating debt pressure, and triggering urgent calls for budget overhaul amid dwindling FX reserves and rising socio-economic vulnerability.”

 Abuja, Nigeria – August 11, 2025: In a jarring blow to Nigeria’s fiscal outlook, the 2025 national budget—penciled at ₦54.99 trillion—is facing a critical setback as global crude oil prices tumble to around $66 per barrel, well below the $75 benchmark used in preparing the budget  

The plunge in oil prices not only threatens expected revenue but dramatically weakens the integrity of the budget, which assumes an optimistic forecast of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) production and a USD/NGN rate of ₦1,500  . With current global crude trading between $66–68, Nigeria’s government faces a severe revenue shortfall that could swell the planned fiscal deficit beyond expectations  .

Output Challenges Compound the Problem

Adding to the price-driven fiscal pinch are persistent output challenges. Crude production has yet to meet these ambitious expectations. OPEC data places Nigeria’s output between 1.5 and 1.55 million bpd, still significantly below the budget’s 2.06 million bpd assumption  . With both price and production targets unmet, the revenue gap is rapidly widening.

Policy Experts Demand Swift Recalibration

Economic analysts and international institutions are warning that the budget’s foundational assumptions were unrealistic from the outset. The IMF has already urged the government to recalibrate its budget, tighten fiscal discipline, redirect fuel subsidy savings toward social safety nets, and build buffers for economic shocks  .

Debt Burden and Subsidy Pressures Intensify

Debt servicing remains gargantuan—consuming a massive share of national revenue—and with oil proceeds dwindling, this fiscal burden becomes more unsustainable. Experts suggest that without revenue boosts or spending reforms, the government might lean even more heavily on borrowing, exacerbating long-term debt risks  .

FX Risks and Broader Economic Dislocation

Crude oil earnings represent the backbone of Nigeria’s foreign exchange inflows. Falling prices shrink FX reserves, skew exchange rates, fuel inflation, and squeeze public finances. Many fear this could cascade into social strains as funding for healthcare, education, and infrastructure becomes squeezed  .

What Lies Ahead

Nigeria now stands at a crossroads. To avert an economic crisis, swift action is paramount. Reassessing production targets, adjusting price assumptions, slashing wasteful expenditures, and safeguarding social programs through targeted transfers are no longer optional—they’re imperative.

As the nation reels from this fiscal turbulence, the resilience of its policy frameworks and governance structures will determine whether Nigeria can steady the ship or succumb to a worsening budgetary crisis.